Table of Contents
Which IPCC RCP is most likely?
RCP 3.4
A 2021 paper suggests that the most plausible projections of cumulative CO 2 emissions (having a 0.1% or 0.3% tolerance with historical accuracy) tend to suggest that RCP 3.4 (3.4 W/m^2, 2.0–2.4 degrees Celsius warming by 2100 according to study) is the most plausible pathway.
What does the 8.5 in RCP8 5 mean?
RCP 8.5 refers to the concentration of carbon that delivers global warming at an average of 8.5 watts per square meter across the planet. The RCP 8.5 pathway delivers a temperature increase of about 4.3˚C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial temperatures.
What is the difference between SRES and RCP?
The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).
What RCP 6?
The RCP 6.0 scenario uses a high greenhouse gas emission rate and is a stabilization scenario where total radiative forcing is stabilized after 2100 by employment of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 6.0 W/m2 refers to the radiative forcing reached by 2100.
What does RCP 4.5 represent?
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per meter squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.
What does SSP2 4.5 mean?
SSP2-4.5: This is a “middle of the road” scenario. CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Socioeconomic factors follow their historic trends, with no notable shifts.
What are the 5 SSP pathways?
In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures.
What is SSP IPCC?
They are collectively known as the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs). These SSPs are now being used as important inputs for the latest climate models, feeding into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report due to be published in 2020-21.
What is SSPs IPCC?